According to
officials, China is planning to restore the nation’s pig herd to 80% of its
normal level by the end of 2020. The Agriculture Ministry Bureau announced on
Nov 22, 2019, about its plan to further improve pig rearing in next year’s
first half as pork prices gradually started to fall. Though pig prices will
gradually fall the herd ay not increase significantly until the second half as
the damaged caused by the epidemic ASF will take time to recover.
Pig recovery will
take time as the pig reproduction has its own rules and will mostly depend on
the number of sows leftover in the second half and according to Yang Zhenhai,
chief of Agriculture Ministry Bureau in charge of animal husbandry and
veterinary medicine, the sow headcount in recovering. China’s pig production
has now entered a transitional phase as supportive policies come into play,
Yang said. The imbalance between the supply and demand is easing and the
monthly decrease in the number of live pigs is further contracting.
China has the
potential to produce over 3million tons of poultry, 1.6 million tons of milk,
over 0.8 million additional tons eggs and 03 million tons of beef and mutton to
offset the impact of African Swine fever on the market. Currently, the ministry
believes that the country is enabling to ensure a supply of livestock products
as an increased output of poultry, egg, beef, and mutton- especially more
poultry will ease the tight pork supply.
All these measures
will not only improve the pig farming industry but will also have an impact on
the feed demand in the country, which was reported to be at its lowest after
the onset of African Swine Fever in the country last year. Based on the report
by Rabobank, the hog feed consumption, which is the largest application area
for animal feed in China dropped by 35% in 2019. However, this decrease in feed
demand was only experienced by the Chinese swine feed sector; other animal
protein segments experience tremendous demand and growth. Industry experts
believe that China’s plan to restore pig herd will fast rebound the animal feed
demand in the country and more international, domestic feed manufacturers will
in cash from this opportunity. Moreover, the feed market is also expected to
become more customized as small-scale pig farms will phase-out and pig farms
will be consolidated which will demand more professional feeding approaches.
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