February 21, 2014
Grim outlook for Australia''s summer grain harvest
Australia is facing a grim outlook for this year''s summer grainharvest, as crops planted in spring and summer are estimated to be even worse than previous forecasts.
Commodity forecaster ABARES reported in its most recent outlook that overall summer crop production would drop by 25%, with sorghum down 36% to 1.3 million tonnes.
Crop planting regions have been baking under temperatures above 40⁰C for several days, leading to poorer quality yields; while planting of crops, such as sorghum, were delayed as extreme dry conditions plagued planting areas of Queensland and northern New South Wales.
As if the forecast was not bleak enough, AgForce Grains president, Wayne Newton, said that the assessment was too optimistic, "That''s probably based on the fact that that forecast was made a number of weeks ago," he said. "Really, since that time the situation has continued to deteriorate with no good general rain in any parts of Queensland''s cropping belt."
In northern New South Wales, most sorghum harvested is expected to fall outside the highest quality specification of sorghum 1 grade.
Steve Dalton, managing director at AgVantage Commodities, said, "We just got an extremely dry year with lack of rainfall, but also extremely high temperatures, which has affected the crop during that flowering and grain-fill stage and that has caused light test weight and high screenings in sorghum."
However, Newton added that with high demand for feed grain, even poorer quality crops would get a decent price in Queensland. "Sorghum prices in northern Australia are very good, driven by the local demand for feed grain."
"For those farmers lucky enough to have grain, prices have been very strong. In fact, we''ve seen sorghum prices at times trade higher than the wheat prices," he concluded.