May 16, 2013
US feed grain production forecast up in 2013-14
Dashed by subsequent drought, the 2013-14 US feed grain production is projected at 376 million tonnes, up from 286 million in 2012-13 in a scenario similar to the May 2012 forecast when a record crop was predicted based on early planting progress and favourable spring weather.
This season, the corn crop is expected to recover from last season''s drought. Acreage is projected higher for the four feed grains and yields, at 3.74 tonnes per acre, are up 26% over last year. Projected acreage is up for corn, sorghum, and oats and is nearly unchanged for barley.
For the four feed grains combined, US planted area is up 1.6 million acres. Planted area is based on producer intentions reported in the March 30 Prospective Plantings. Projected harvested area is based on historical relationships in planted and harvested acreage. Projected yields are based on trend models for barley and oats, an historic average that drops highs and lows for sorghum, and a weather-adjusted trend model that also takes into account May planting progress for corn. Harvested area is projected at 100.5 million acres, up from 96.6 million last season.
Beginning feed grain stocks are projected at 21.9 million tonnes in 2013-14, the lowest since 1996-97. Total 2013-14 feed grain supply is projected at a record-high 400 million tonnes, slightly over the previous record set in 2009-10.
Total US feed grain use is expected to increase by 49 million tonnes to 346 million in 2013-14 due to higher feed and residual use; food, seed and industrial use; and exports. Year-to-year feed and residual use are projected up 24 million tonnes, and exports are projected 16 million higher.