April 7, 2014
Driven by Thailand''s growing livestock sector, especially in broiler, egg and pig operations, soy consumption is expected to rebound in marketing years 2013-14 and 2014-15 in line with rising demand for soymeal.
Demand from the aquaculture sector, primarily shrimp, is also increasing. Soy imports are expected to grow in marketing years 2013-14 and 2014-15, accordingly. Local crushers normally import US soy only when South American supplies are short or North American prices are low.
As a result of serious drought in Brazil and Argentina, US market share of the Thai soyimport market soared to 32% in 2012-13. However, the US share is likely to fall again to 19-20% in marketing year 2013-14 as soy crop production in the southern hemisphere return to normal levels.
All soymeal, either derived from domestic production or imports, is utilised for animal feed production. In marketing year 2013-14, soymeal imports are expected to be 11% higher than marketing year 2012-13 and climb another 3% in marketing year 2014-15.
Brazil, Argentina and India are Thailand''s major soymeal import suppliers. US soymeal recently became more competitive when US soymeal prices declined sharply in October and November 2013, and as a result, Thailand is likely to import 300,000 to 400,000 tonnes of US soymeal in 2014.
Fish meal production is expected to be around 450,000 to 460,000 tonnes in 2014 and 2015.
Soyoil production is estimated to increase in marketing years 2013-14 and 2014-15, in line with expected higher soy deliveries to crushing facilities. Thailand is becoming a large supplier of soyoil to other Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and Asian economies, exporting 55,000 to 60,000 tonnes in the past few years. Its exports should increase to 70,000 to 75,000 tonnes in 2014 and 2015.
Thailand''s trade and production policies on soy, soymeal, fish meal and soyoil remain unchanged from last year''s report.