December 5, 2013
Canada''s 2013-14 grain production increases
The December 4 report of Statistics Canada showed a surprisingly large August 2013-July 2014 production figures for many of the crops grown in the country.
The most surprising figure was the 37.53 million-tonne production estimate for all wheat. Statistics Canada previously estimated that 2013-14 all wheat production would total 33.03 million tonnes. In 2012-13, 27.21 million tonnes were grown.
The rapeseed production estimate of 17.96 million tonnes was at the highest end of expectations, but just as shocking to the trade.
Statistics Canada previously pegged rapeseed production at 15.96 million tonnes for the 2013-14 crop year. There were 13.87 million tonnes of rapeseed grown in Canada last year.
Durum wheat, oats and barley were also above expectations, with even larger-than-anticipated yields behind the increases for all
crops.Because all of the crops are so huge, it won''t be possible to move the entire crop this year, Mike Jubinville of ProFarmer Canada in Winnipeg said.
He added that farmers may not be able to deliver some types of wheat until next year now because some grain companies are placing priorities on hard red spring varieties.
Because there just isn''t enough capacity to get everything moved this year, there will also likely be larger-than-anticipated carryover stocks of all crops.
For rapeseed, carryout stocks could be larger than three million tonnes, Ken Ball of PI Financial in Winnipeg said, adding that previous guesses were in the 1.6 million to 1.8 million-tonne range.
With logistical issues, the huge supplies and large expected carryout figures, prices for most crops will likely drift lower going forward.
Rapeseed prices were also taking a hit, with the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Futures Canada rapeseed market moving lower in reaction to the surprisingly large production number.
The following is a quick summary of the Statistics Canada crop production estimates for 2013-14. Pre-report estimates are included for comparison.