CCM: Review of the Chinese chlorpyrifos market in Q3 2016 10-27-2016

H1 2016 saw continued depression in the Chinese chlorpyrifos market and the market price kept hitting new lows. Most producers suffered great business pressure, due to slack demand from both the domestic and overseas markets. This downward trend continued on into Q3, which witnessed a fall in both market supply and price. However, things may yet improve in Q4.

 


Source: Baidu


- Market supply

 

From July-Sept. 2016, a total of 7,000 tonnes of chlorpyrifos TC were produced in China, significantly down 50%+ QoQ (= quarter on quarter) and 20%+ YoY (year on year), according to the National Bureau of Statistics of the People's Republic of China. All three months saw a lower output over the same months last year, especially Aug. when monthly output reached a new low.

 

The decline in supply was mainly ascribed to the following two reasons:

1. Many plants in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces cut or even suspended production for maintenance, affected by high temperatures, national environmental inspections, and the 2016 G20 Summit.

2. Weak market demand forced manufacturers to reduce production so as to ease pressure on inventory and production costs.

 

- Market price


Despite the decreased supply, the domestic ex-works price of chlorpyrifos TC remained low in Q3 2016, according to CCM’s price monitoring. This was mainly because market demand still hadn't improved. Most purchasers were not in hurry to buy and bided their time in hope of a lower price.




However, the price went up slightly in Sept. after falls in July and Aug, mainly thanks to the following factors:


1. Increased raw material prices


Badly affected by the national environmental inspections, most producers of chlorpyrifos TC intermediates had to reduce or even halt production, leading to declined market supply and increased prices. Moreover, just a few chlorpyrifos TC manufacturers have realised self-supply of these intermediates. Given this and the increased intermediate price and reduced chlorpyrifos TC inventory, many leading chlorpyrifos producers raised their quotations.


2. Low supply in Aug.


Many domestic producers of chlorpyrifos TC suspended production for maintenance in mid- to late-Aug., resulting in unprecedented low supply and further causing a slight price rise in Sept.


Monthly ex-works price of chlorothalonil 98% TC in China, Oct. 2015-Oct. 2016


Source: CCM

 

- Market prediction for Q4


In Q4 2016, the chlorpyrifos TC market is expected to improve in terms of both sales and price given the following aspects:

  • Raw materials: production and supply of intermediates may continue to be limited given that national environmental inspections are said to carry on into Oct.
  • Production costs: prices of some basic chemicals have kept rising, pushing up production costs
  • Sales season: sales volume is expected to be boosted by demand, as transactions had increased in Q4 in previous years
  • Positive influence from the National Agrochemical Exchange Meeting & AgroChemEx 2016


Of course, there is still a possibility that some plants will be attracted by the rising price and resume production in Oct. If so, the increased supply will be unfavourable for a rise in market price in the coming period.

 

This article comes from Insecticides China News 1610, CCM

 



About CCM:

CCM is the leading market intelligence provider for China’s agriculture, chemicals, food & ingredients and life science markets. Founded in 2001, CCM offers a range of data and content solutions, from price and trade data to industry newsletters and customized market research reports. Our clients include Monsanto, DuPont, Shell, Bayer, and Syngenta. CCM is a brand of Kcomber Inc.

 

For more information about CCM, please visit www.cnchemicals.com or get in touch with us directly by emailing econtact@cnchemicals.com or calling +86-20-37616606.

 

Tag: chlorpyrifos

 

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