Increase in Grandparent Stock Supply in China 01-23-2020

After, the protein deficiency in China due to the outbreak of Africa Swine Fever, the consumers got shifted to poultry, which was restricted in supply due to a shortage of grandparent stock. However, this scenario got changed when China increased its imports of grandparent stock to cover up the rising demand. The increased imports of grandparent stock signal stronger growth in white bird production in upcoming years, which signals towards better poultry industry in the country.


Based on the data collected from Boyar, the total GP stock supply in China, which include both domestically produced breeding stock and imported stock, is up by 49 % on a year-over-year basis.  Currently, along with high pork prices amid the ASF outbreak, poultry prices have also been pressured up. The prices for retail chicken have reached record highs; the average retail prices for chicken have reached a record high and are up 16% as compared to the price a year ago.


Besides the increase in GP stock imports, the country has also experienced an increase in poultry imports for the first seven months of 2019 as compared to the first seven months of the previous year. The total poultry imports till July 2019 reached 424,000metric tons, a 51% year-over-year increase. The average import prices also hit a record high in July. According to the data collected by Robobank, most of the country’s imports were originated from Brazil, but its share of China’s imports dropped from 86% in the first half of 2018 to 70% in 2019 because of increased trade barriers and regulations. Argentina and Thailand are the countries, which too benefit from the current Chinese poultry market condition and increased their share of China’s imports to 10%.


Impact on high poultry imports on local farmers:

China’s market with its huge population, speedy economic growth, and foreseen dietary transformation, deliver very moving dynamic opportunities. At present, poultry products sit on the top of meat consumption in China, consumer demand for chicken soars as sick pig scare. This scenario has not just changed the dynamics of the global meat market but has also impacted the local farmers especially the ones who have switched from raising pigs to chickens.  The increased poultry imports have somehow reduced the demand pressure in the market but it has also decreased the prices that local farmers get for their birds due to a rise in supply.

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