January 9, 2012
Global fertiliser demand to increase to new high
International demand for fertilisers is expected to increase to a new high this season, driven by growth in emerging economies and strong fundamentals in agricultural markets, the International Fertiliser Industry Association (IFA) said.
Fertiliser demand, expressed as consumption of key nutrients nitrogen, phosphorous and potassium, should rise 3% to 178.2 million tonnes in 2011/12, the IFA said in a summary of a market outlook.
"Responding to attractive agricultural prices, world fertiliser demand is anticipated to rise steadily in 2011/12," it said.
Overall demand growth this season will include a 3.1% rise for nitrogen to 107.7 million tonnes, a 1% increase for phosphorous to 41.1 million tonnes and a 5.7% rise for potassium to 29.4 million tonnes, the IFA said.
The projected demand for 2011/12 will surpass an already record level of 173 million tonnes estimated for 2010/11, when an economic rebound and tight commodity markets drove a 6.2% rise in fertiliser consumption, the IFA said.
Of the three main nutrients, last year''s demand for potassium still lagged levels it had reached before 2008/09.
"By the end of the 2011/12 campaign, world fertiliser demand is expected to have fully recovered from the (2008/09) economic downturn for the three macronutrients," IFA said.
All regions will see growth in total fertiliser demand except for Western and Central Europe, with the largest increases in East Asia, South Asia and Latin America, it said.
It tentatively forecast that world consumption of fertilisers would grow 2.3% in 2012/13 but said the outlook was dependent on a deteriorating context in mature economies.
On the supply side, production capacity expanded in 2011 and should grow again in 2012 as new projects come on stream in response to rising demand, it said.