June 7, 2010
EU compound feed production down 4% in 2009
The 2009 estimate for compound feed production for the EU-27 (excluding Greece, Malta and Luxembourg) is set at 147.6 million tonnes, 3.8% below the figure for 2008, according to FEFAC, the European Compound Feed Manufacturers'' Federation.
The significant downturn has affected all animal species, in particular cattle feed (-6%), pig feed (-5%) and, to a lesser extent, poultry feed (-1%).
Four key factors have weighed on the EU feed demand in 2009. First, there wasa dramatic crisis affecting the
dairy sector, which triggered a severe contraction of the demand for efficient cattle feed, i.e. compound feed mainly in the third and fourth quarter. Second,the euro zone was bogged down by the continual downward slope of the pig production cycle, amplified by the financial difficulties of pig farmers. Third, there had been low market quotations for cereals, with the consequence that farmers had few incentives to put their cereals on the market rather than using them on the farm. Lastly, the financial crisis which led to lower consumer demand for products of animal origin, i.e. to a switch to less expensive animal proteins sources.
As far as countries are concerned, Spain and France are now shoulder-to-shoulder for the position of EU leading country in terms of total compound feed production, preceding Germany. Spain indeed registered a lower decrease, i.e. 2.6% down whereas Germany, France, Italy and The Netherlands experienced a downturn within a range of 3.6%-6.1%. Cattle and pig feed production went down in almost all countries, whereas poultry feed production increased in Italy, Belgium, Hungary, Poland and Portugal but dropped in France, Germany, The Netherlands and Spain.
For 2010''s compound feedoutlook, FEFAC experts identified a continuation of difficulties in the dairy sector despite a modest increase in milk prices, the end of the downward trend in the pig production cycle and a continued recovery in consumer demand for poultry products.
The current forecasts for the EU cereals harvest 2010 indicate relatively low quotations for new crop grains in 2010, while soymeal prices are expected to remain stable: the announced decrease in global quotations due to record harvests in South America is likely to be offset by a less advantageous dollar/euro exchange rate. As a consequence, FEFAC experts foresee a further reduction in cattle feed production (-2%) and pig feed (-1%) and a stabilisation in poultry feed production. Overall, compound feed production may decrease by 1% compared to 2009.