February 21, 2014
South American soy production on the rise
The adequate conditions in the largest crop production area of Brazil''s Mato Grosso resulted in a projected record of 90 million tonnes of soy, up one million tonnes, or 1.1%, from last month''s estimate and surpassing the US production of 89.51 million tonnes.
The USDA''s estimate is eight million tonnes above 2013. Harvested area is forecast at a record 29.5 million hectares, unchanged from last month and up 1.8 million hectares, or 6.5%, from last year.
Brazil''s soy yield is estimated at 3.05 tonnes per hectare, compared to 2.92 tonnes per hectare in the US.
About 12% of Mato Grosso''s soys have been harvested, and reports indicate early-maturing soys are producing above-average yields. Mato Grosso is expected to produce as much as 28% of the total national production.
Despite areas with limited rainfall, the soycrop condition in Rio Grande do Sul reportedly is good with yields anticipated higher than last year. Soys in Rio Grande do Sul are just past flowering stage, so precipitation during the next two weeks is crucial for pod fill. Rio Grande do Sul represents about 16% of the total soy production.
Argentine soy production is forecast at 54 million tonnes, down 0.9% from last month, but up 9.5% from last season. The estimated harvested area is unchanged at 20 million hectares, up 3.1% from last year.
The Argentine forecast yield is reduced to 2.70 tonnes per hectare, down 0.9% from last month, but up 6.3% from last year. Crop conditions have recovered somewhat from the hot and dry conditions that prevailed during January.
According to Argentina''s Ministry of Agriculture, about 86% of the soys are in good or very good condition, but rain arrived late in western and southern areas of Buenos Aires, which could reduce the potential yield of second-crop soy in this region.
The 2013-14 Argentine corn crop is forecast at 24 million tonnes, down 4% from last month and down 9.4% from last year. Area is estimated at 3.3 million hectares, a drop of 2.9% from last month and 18% less than last year. Yield is forecast at 7.27 tonnes per hectare, down 1.1% from last month, but up 9.8% from last year.
Most of Argentina''s early-planted corn was affected by the very high temperatures for 11 days with little or no rain in mid-December followed by hot and dry conditions throughout much of January.
Much of this early corn was just going into flowering during the heat-stress conditions, which likely will have a considerable effect on potential yield. Dryness caused additional stress for corn in southern Cordoba, La Pampa and the western and central-south regions of Buenos Aires. More than 50% of the corn in Argentina this year was planted later than usual due to dry conditions early in the season.
Brazilian corn production was left unchanged at 70 million tonnes, down 11 million from last year. Yields are projected at 4.76 tonnes per hectare, down from 5.13 a year ago. The US yields are estimated at 9.97 tonnes per hectare.
The corn area in Brazil was estimated at 14.7 million hectares, down from 15.8 million last year.