Polycarbonates (PC) are a group of
thermoplastic polymers containing carbonate groups in their chemical
structures. Thanks to PC's specificity in its structure, PC has become the general
engineering plastic with the fastest growth in five engineering plastics. PC is
mainly applied in glazing industry, automobile industry and electrical industry.
Source: Bing
Analysis
and prospect on PC supply
By the end of 2015, there were five PC
manufacturers in China with the total PC capacity of 628,000 t/a, including Covestro
AG (Shanghai) (200,000 t/a), Teijin Limited (Zhejiang) (150,000 t/a), Mitsubishi
Gas Chemical Engineering-Plastics (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. (100,000 t/a), Sinopec Mitsubishi
Chemical Polycarbonate (Beijing) Co., Ltd. (78,000 t/a) and Ningbo Daphoon
Chemical Co., Ltd. (100,000 t/a).
Moreover, 65,000 t/a of PC capacity in LUXI
Group (Shandong) was put into operation in March 2015, but there is still no actual
PC product manufactured. The supply of PC was about 440,000 tonnes in China in
2015, up 35% YoY.
As we could see from the enterprises locations,
PC manufacturers are mainly located in Shanghai, Zhejiang, Beijing and Shandong.
Shanghai has the most PC capacity of 300,000 t/a, accounting for 43.3% of the
total PC capacity in China. Zhejiang comes next, with the PC capacity of
250,000 t/a, accounting for 36.1% of the total.
It is predicted that PC capacity in China
would be greatly released in 2015-2018, and after 2015, there would be over 1
million t/a of PC capacity being constructed and put into operation. 800,000
t/a of PC capacity could be put into operation as what it is planned. It is
estimated that the PC capacity in China would reach 913,000 t/a in 2017.
Analysis
and prospect on PC demand
In 2015, the output of PC was 440,000
tonnes in China in 2015, up 35% YoY. The apparent consumption of PC was 1.655 million,
with the CAGR of 5.8% in 2010-2015. PC is often consumed in electronic and
electrical industry, automobile industry, plate material industry and barrel
industry, together accounting for 87% of the total PC consumption in China.
The PC consumed in electronic and
electrical industry increased obviously. Due to PC's good and stable electric
insulation in a wide range of temperature and humidity, PC is an excellent insulation.
In the meanwhile, its flame retardancy and dimensional stability makes it
widely used in the electronic and electrical industry.
As for the automobile industry, the demand
for PC was quite limited. PC's good transmittance, impact resistance, weather
ability and high hardness makes it widely used in auto lighting system,
dashboard and defroster. PC is also applied in the automotive interior and exterior.
When it comes to plate materials industry, the
demand for PC fell due to the sluggish real-estate market. The PC consumption
in plate materials industry only accounted for 20% of the total demand for PC
in China in 2015.
PC barrels are made from food-grade PC to
contain purified water, drinking water and mineral water, which is the only kind
of qualified container in the drinking water industry in China.
Impacted by the new media and new recording
method, the PC consumption in CD industry only accounted for 6% of the total PC
consumption in China in 2015.
It is predicted that the consumption of PC
would reach 1.81 million tonnes in 2017.
Analysis
and prospect on PC imports and exports
China is a net import country of PC. The import
volume of PC was 1.427 million tonnes in China in 2015, decreased by 53,000
tonnes and down 3.6% YoY; while the export volume was 212,000 tonnes, fell by
11,000 tonnes compared to that in 2014.
General trade was the most popular way in
China import trading in 2015, with the trading volume of 754,000 tonnes in
2015, accounting for 52.8% of the total PC import volume. Feeding processing
trade came next, with the trading volume of 508,000 tonnes, accounting for
35.6% of the total. South Korea, Taiwan China and Thailand are the main
importing countries/regions, with the import volumes accounting for 24.5%,
19.2% and 13.8% respectively. Guangdong Province imported the most PC in China,
with the import volume taking up 47.6% of the total. Shanghai and Zhejiang
Province followed, with the import volume taking up 20.5% and 13.2%
respectively.
Feeding processing trade was the major way
in China PC export in 2015, with the trading volume accounting for 88.5% of the
total export volume. Shipping origins mainly located in Guangdong Province, with
the trading volume accounting for 45.3% of the total; and the trading volume in
Shanghai and Zhejiang Province took up 42.6% and 10.2% respectively. The major
export destinations were Hong Kong China, Taiwan China and Japan, with the
trading volume accounting for 64.9%, 9.4% and 8.5% respectively.
Analysis
and prospect on PC market price
China PC market was impacted by the global
economy in 2015. Take the price of Covestro polymer 2805 for an example, the
peak was RMB19,938/t in Jan. 2015 while the bottom was 16,819/t in Sep. 2015. The
average price was RMB18,421/t in 2015.
It is predicted that the PC capacity in
China would be greatly released in 2015-2018, and after 2015, there would be
over 1 million t/a of PC capacity being constructed and put into operation.
800,000 t/a of PC capacity could be put into operation as what it is planned.
With release of new capacity, competitions
with the importing countries/regions, and slow growth in downstream apparent
consumption, the operation rate sees an upward trend. It is predicted that the average
operation rate in China would fall below 70%.
*The
article is edited and translated by CCM. The original one comes from Economic Analysis of China Petroleum and
Chemical Industry.
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